Projected Outcome

This project proposes to start bridging the gap between the new daunting challenges posed by transnational terrorism and our current conceptual and policy deficiencies. It addresses what we see as the key issues involved: new notions of security and the role played in it by transnational terrorism; the definition and etiology of terrorism; the societal impact of terrorism; its economic impact; and - last but not least - the policy options available to deal with these issues.

The overall objective of TTSRL is twofold. First, we will analyze the nature and significance of the evolving threat of transnational terrorism to the European Union and its individual Member States. Based on this primary analysis we will examine the appropriateness and effectiveness of response options aimed at dealing with these threats and their impacts.

Expected (overall) results:

• An overview of the varying conceptual views on terrorism and the different roles this plays in discussions on security within the European Union and the Member States. We will provide suggestions on how to deal with these divergences;
• A better insight into the societal and economic consequences of terrorism and of counter-terrorist policies;
• An analysis of the numerous policies and initiatives set up in the various Member States aimed at dealing with the threat of transnational terrorism;
• A benchmark of these policies and initiatives across Europe, as well as an analysis of the results of this benchmark;
• The identification of gaps in the policy where anti- or counter-terrorism measures still must be taken;
• The identification of possible effects of European integration on the nature of the threat of transnational terrorism;
• A tool to track changes in both policy and societal discourse on terrorism in Europe.

As scientists we are a bit hesitant to make claims about the future impact of this study. However, we foresee impacts for at least three fields. The main implication we believe will be for the academic field. The identification and analysis of specific European trends and other developments with respect to terrorism will help enhance the existing body of knowledge of the (European nature) of this phenomenon. Furthermore, since this study aims to further knowledge on radicalization and terrorism’s rise and decline it is sure to provide not only the field of terrorism-studies but also that of conflict management and possibly others with new (fundamental) impetuses – based upon extensive (comparative) empirical research. In the second place, this study will have indirect social and economic impacts. Social impacts are foreseen in the sense that the research is set to identify options to promote civil peace.  Economic, since the research will provide options to minimize terrorism’s negative economic impact. In the third place TTSRL will impact policymaking on both the European level and on the level of the individual Member States. It will do so in a threefold manner. Firstly, by informing policymakers about the nature and diversity of the threats and challenges terrorism poses and secondly, by providing options to counter particular terrorist threats challenges. Lastly, it will provide a comprehensive European counterterrorism strategy. 

Regarding innovation-related activities, it is important to note that an essential element of the proposed research-project is the use and the further development of an existing storage, retrieval and analysis program (PARANOID) that enables researchers and policy makers to distill information from unstructured sources through data-mining, text-interpretation and a range of storage and analysis-tools. It integrates and automates case-selection by defining the limiting conditions that apply to the desired context, and stores the – previously unstructured – data in a flexible, structured database. Then, the program enables further analysis through context analysis, pattern recognition, trend and threat analysis. For the purpose of this research, it will integrate (geo-)graphical, statistical, analytical and data-mining interfaces that enable the researcher to conduct quantitative analyses from qualitative sources, such as newspapers, in a fraction of the time this normally requires. It employs innovative data-presentation techniques, including a Geographical Information System and other innovative navigation methods. This tool is currently being further developed in close co-operation with Dutch military and intelligence services, including in the field of counter-terrorism. PARANOID will be used in this project to analyze large volumes of policy and press statements.